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Previous Market Trend Calls
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You can check my previous "Market Trend" calls* from the many links below. All of them are dated and posted on unaffiliated third party public websites and/or includes dated charts that I post live.
* June 01, 07: S&P @ 1540 - Neutral
* Oct. 04, 07: S&P @1544 - Bearish
* May 14, 08: S&P @ 1420 - Very Bearish 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9
* Oct. 10, 08: S&P @ 850 - Neutral 1.2.3
* Nov. 20, 08: S&P @ 750 - Bullish 1
* Jan. 06, 09: S&P @ 940 - Neutral 1
* Feb. 09, 09: S&P @ 875 - Bearish 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.
* March 03, 09: S&P @ 695 - Bullish
1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.14.
* Sep. 23, 09: S&P @ 1080 - Neutral 1.2.3.4.5.6.
* Jan. 04, 10: S&P @ 1130 - Bearish 1.2.3.4.5.
This page is a quick "sum up" to my current market analysis
detailed on my blogs. It will quickly tell you where my analysis
stands and where it’s heading. It addresses two things: First, a TREND CALL, which is meant to indicate the current predominant market trend that my analysis led me to take. There are five of them (read below).
As a general rule, the trend call is meant for few weeks to few months (sometimes years but not anymore in this market). During a trend call, the market will swing in both directions and number of actions can be taken during each trend (see below). The action is usually changes every few days to few weeks (used to be few months in the old days).
The action call is simple. During the life of any trend, the market will swing briefly against that trend but will not bring it to complete halt. For example, in a bullish trend, the market can reach a temporary top with over-bullish slant to pull back before continuing the major trend. It can take a breather and correct but by no means this is going to be a major top. A
prudent investor or swing trader should as a precaution lock profits at
these levels by reducing or hedging his long positions for example
while staying bullish.
At these junctions, I'll choose one of the four actions listed below for each trend call. On the other hand, when I believe that the predominant trend itself is going to change, then I will assign a different trend call and choose the most appropriate action that matches my analysis for the new incoming trend.
Notice that you don't have to pick every market turn during a trend. It all depends on your time frame and risk tolerance among other things. Aggressive traders of whom I belong to should do whatever they want. These calls do not apply to them.
*Most appropriate actions for investors and prudent traders:
Trend Action
~ Very bullish: Never short - Buy aggressively - Add longs - Hold longs
~ Bullish: Buy - Add longs - Hold longs - Hedge or reduce longs
~ Neutral: Hold - Hedge or Reduce longs/shorts - Trade - Cash
~ Bearish: Short - Add shorts - hold shorts - Hedge or reduce shorts
~ Very Bearish: Never buy - Short aggressively - Add shorts - Hold shorts
Based on your risk tolerance and time frame among other things, choose the appropriate action that matches your trading style and goals. Pay attention that for example you can short in a bullish market or go long in bearish one but it will not be the most appropriate action and should be left to professional short-term day and swing traders.
Never fight the market. Read my trading rules - Click here.
As usual, I hope this added some value to your thinking and find you and yours well. Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.
GoodVibe
Mr. Lucky
